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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, although experts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.