UK Diplomats Cautioned Regarding Military Action to Overthrow Robert Mugabe

Recently released documents reveal that the UK's diplomatic corps advised against British military action to remove the then Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "serious option".

Policy Papers Show Deliberations on Handling a "Remarkably Robust" Dictator

Policy papers from Tony Blair's government show officials weighed up options on how best to handle the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country descended into turmoil and financial collapse.

Following the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential courses of action.

Isolation Strategy Deemed Ineffective

Diplomats concluded that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was failing, having failed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Options outlined in the files included:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the approach supported by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its harmful policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "serious option," and warned that "The only candidate for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Jurisdictional Barriers

It warned that military intervention would result in significant losses and have "serious consequences" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a major humanitarian and political disaster – resulting in widespread bloodshed, large-scale refugee flows, and instability in the region – we judge that no nation in Africa would support any efforts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The paper continues: "We also believe that any other international ally (including the US) would sanction or join military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Long-Term Strategy Advocated

The Prime Minister's advisor, Laurie Lee, warned him that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been ruled out, "it is likely necessary that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, noting: "We should work out a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then afterwards, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a clear understanding."

The departing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had advocated cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has said and done".

The Zimbabwean leader was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise Thabo Mbeki into joining a military coalition to overthrow Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the former UK premier.