🔗 Share this article

Only two days before the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – not just who would win overall, but precinct by precinct. The analyst, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, devoted more than ten years in progressive politics and emerged as something of a well-known figure recently for his deep dives into city data and polling.

He published his highly detailed prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious while missing Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He possesses a talent for witty coinages. He highlighted, as an example, the divide between the “commie corridor”, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, certain media outlets and financial newspapers surpass the New York Times” in audience and the majority of electors favored the independent, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Trends and Unexpected Results

What was your night?

I had to do that since they were adding around 200,000 votes into the tally every few minutes! I felt a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani led the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but there were two big batches of votes that came in after that and his lead dropped from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world in which yesterday went kind of poorly for him, where Cuomo would have essentially increasing his support from the Democratic primary. However the winner added half a million votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the primary.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect gain additional support from?

He built the alliance that the left long aimed for: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and individuals squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Additionally he boosted his core of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He created the alliance that the left long aimed for: multiracial, young, tenants and people squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It is a real thing, confined to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Islamic voters. Voters in ethnic enclaves that supported Trump previously backed Zohran now. But I wouldn’t say he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

A major development of the night was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Turnout was significantly higher than I had expected. I figured we might go over two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. There was a decent anti-Mamdani block, energized, but his supporters was equally driven, and that was enough to win.

You predicted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Right now you would say he’s favored to get over 50%. He has 50.4% but remain probably 200,000 votes uncounted as of Wednesday morning. Thus I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe probable, and I wish he does because afterwards none can claim the Republican was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His vote plummeted.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any area. Not even Tottenville in the borough, which is like an 88% Trump neighborhood. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, affluent zones and devout communities, and then added all of these Republicans on the island who had a strong turnout. I think occurred significant strategic balloting by GOP voters. They were doing it before Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome if the winning alliance failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your much mentioned “commie corridor” – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those parts of the boroughs?

I think existed a little dilution of the progressive zone in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the Greek landlords and residents supported the independent. So there was some opposition. However overall, largely the leftist base is a key factor why Mamdani won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the election there was coverage on whether the candidate was making inroads with the community. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

There are areas with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – like specific locales – where he did well. However in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Upper East Side, his position on Israel was influential in those places. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned the independent. And also, there are Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were strongly Cuomo. Therefore it’s unclear if there were major surprises on this one, but Mamdani did hold left-leaning areas and even parts of the another locale by big margins.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York represents in politics? Will the commie corridor become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from the left hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that we’ll see additional examples – people will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

But I believe that every city in the US can have their own commie corridor. Cities are the centers of leftwing power in America – since youth reside there, people rent and they are places where individuals struggle by the inequalities we face.