‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: War on Iran Tightens India's Cooking-Gas Supplies.

The shockwaves of a war being fought nearly a significant distance away are now impacting India's homes.

As military actions on Iran disrupt energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, supplies of cooking gas are dwindling across India, compelling restaurants to reduce offerings, reduce operating times and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is filled with video clips showing crowds outside LPG distributors across Indian metros and localities as anxieties over fuel supplies spread. Businesses appear the most affected: the biggest crunch is in food service establishments.

"Conditions are critical. Cooking gas simply isn't available," says a official of the an industry group.

Most restaurants run either on business-grade gas tanks or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the scarcities are now being felt across the country. "A lot of restaurants have closed - some in northern India, many in the southern region. People are switching to coal and wood and electric cookers to keep kitchens going."

Regional Impact

In Mumbai, accounts say up to a 20% of eateries are already completely or partially closed as business fuel stocks dry up. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some restaurants say their fuel reserves have depleted with scarce alternatives. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no food items - it is extremely difficult. Businesses are going to suffer," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are seeking alternatives. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are opening only for dinner and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are fluctuating as supplies wax and wane. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers report a spike in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are running out of them.

Government Stance

Yet, the authorities maintains there is no shortage.

India has more than 30 crore household consumers and spokespersons say supplies are being prioritized to households as conflict-related stress from the regional hostilities impact energy markets.

Roughly six out of ten of India's LPG is imported, and about nine out of ten of those consignments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital passage now largely blocked by the conflict.

The oil ministry says that it instructed refineries to boost LPG output for home needs, lifting domestic production by about 25%. Business-grade fuel is being prioritised for critical services such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Unnecessary hoarding and hoarding has been triggered by misinformation. The normal delivery cycle for home fuel remains about 60 hours," says a senior official.

Growing Panic

Now the worry is extending beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of scooters outside a fuel station. "Anxiety is palpable," the text reads.

According to analysis from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be premature.

India imports almost all of its petroleum. Around 50% of its crude oil imports - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the gap could be partly offset by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on vessel tracking and industry information, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, narrowing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The real vulnerability is cooking gas, experts note.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the chokepoint.

Refineries can adjust processes to extract a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only increase domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be partially mitigated through diversification. Fuel availability remains fairly adequate. Cooking gas supply is the key factor to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the anxiety on the ground is not just limited availability but patchy deliveries - and the usual problem of panic buying.

An industry representative states opportunistic profiteering.

"Distributors are taking advantage of the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold at a premium."

For now, India's energy imports may be buffered by global trade flows. But in homes across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next refill.